![]() East Antarctic ice sheet most vulnerable to Weddell Sea warming. ![]() Ocean temperature thresholds for Last Interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Sutter, J., Gierz, P., Grosfeld, K., Thoma, M. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Formation and disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet. Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet. Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, A. ![]() The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise. An overview of interactions and feedbacks between ice sheets and the Earth system. Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss. The stability of grounding lines on retrograde slopes. West Antarctic ice sheet and CO 2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. Strain heating and creep instability in glaciers and ice sheets. A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets. Response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multi-millennial greenhouse warming in the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM. Some basic experiments with a vertically-integrated ice-sheet model. Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall. Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Martin, M. Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. PISM, a Parallel Ice Sheet Model: User’s Manual (2017). The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK)-Part 1: Model description. Shallow shelf approximation as a ‘sliding law’ in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica. Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica’s long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.įretwell, P. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. The ice sheet’s temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. Consistent with palaeodata 2 we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model 3, 4, 5, that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. ![]() Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions 1.
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